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PUC floats new plan
Retirement center now part of Angwin proposal
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
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Roughly 100 Angwin residents got their first look last week at possible changes to the Angwin eco-village, including the addition of a retirement center.

But the changes don’t appear to satisfy some residents who remain opposed to major development.
Pacific Union College and developer Triad Communities are proposing to take 105 regular housing units out of the project and add a 105-unit retirement center south of the current location of the College Market.

Those adjustments would preserve the ball fields on the west side of Howell Mountain Road, leaving an important community asset and a belt of green space.
Unlike the old plan, the new plan would leave in place most of the existing housing at Brookside Apartments and Mobile Manor.

The college and Triad say the changes were based on feedback they received from the Angwin community. But some of the attendees at Tuesday’s meeting still had serious concerns about the eco-village’s impact on local infrastructure.
“The biggest issue is the road. There’s one road in and out of Angwin,” said Pat Brown. “And the other big issue is water.”

PUC and Triad representatives said an upcoming environmental impact report will take an in-depth look at issues such as water and traffic.

The addition of a retirement center didn’t do much to allay the fears of Angwinite Andrea Rahn. “I think this is all about money,” she said. “I think they’re making the biggest mistake they could ever possibly make.”

Paul Pugh of Angwin was impressed that representatives of the college and Triad were making an effort to answer the community’s questions. He said adding a retirement center and preserving the ball fields are both good ideas.

“Whether the houses will sell is another story,” he said.

Most members of Save Rural Angwin — the community group fighting the eco-village — say they would support a 191-unit development that’s already been pre-approved by county planners.

Early on in the process, eco-village proponents suggested that project wasn’t a viable option because it wouldn’t do enough to help the college make the money it seeks to boost its endowment.

On Tuesday Triad representative Kevin Block said that although the 191-unit project isn’t as attractive for the college as the eco-village, “it does pencil out” financially.

However, he and other eco-village proponents said the 191-unit project is a lesser alternative for the school and the community because it doesn’t include eco-village components such as new parks and trails, solar and geothermal power, a new sheriff’s substation and the use of reclaimed water for landscaping and irrigation.

That argument struck a chord with Edwin Segura, who took note of maps showing that the 191-unit project would include new housing near his Cold Springs Road home.

He said he prefers the eco-village, particularly the new retirement center: “I’m at that age right now, and I’d love to move into a retirement house,” he said.

Save Rural Angwin’s Kellie Anderson wasn’t swayed. She said she appreciated the opportunity for community members to share their opinions, but she still doesn’t support anything beyond the 191-unit project.

The changes introduced Tuesday “don’t preserve the currently farmed areas,” she said. “I support 191, the preservation of the forest and the farms, and a community for families.”
30 comment(s)

reader wrote on Sep 30, 2008 1:01 PM:

" This article shares with todays paper an article on gang violence, stating that there is very little gang action upvalley. With the 300 proposed low income houses in Angwin, that will definitely change. This article states that the eco village will include a sheriff's station. My first thought was "why?" We are the safest community in the entire bay area. Other than lots of traffic accidents on Howell Mt. Rd., there is no need for law enforcement here. Whoops! I forgot about the proposed 300 low income houses. PUC, I ask you, is this the legacy that you want to leave to the Angwin community; gang violence in Angwin? Do you honestly believe that a build-out community in Angwin won't attract this aspect of the population? There are countless reasons not to build a large community in Angwin, gangs are just one more good reason. No, this is not a "not in my back yard." This is about keeping safe communities safe vs. spreading the violence and the proplems through out the county. Keep the problem contained where law enforcement can keep control of it. "

kkjp wrote on Sep 30, 2008 3:15 PM:

" reader: Please refer me to the site where you're getting 300 low income houses. The plan on the county's website & the angwin-ecovillage website say 65. I assume less with the new smaller plan. "

PUC Prof wrote on Sep 30, 2008 6:12 PM:

" I believe the new proposed plan will include 41 low income houses, which is 15% rather than the 10% mandated for housing projects. "

vocal-de-local wrote on Sep 30, 2008 9:21 PM:

" kkjp, you were the same person who vehemently jumped all over Caldwell in another post. The reason your name stood out is because you are an advocate of the Angwin development. Do you work for Triad?

Interesting. "

vocal-de-local wrote on Sep 30, 2008 9:34 PM:

" Is it wise situating a large group of low income people in an area where roundtrip to Napa costs at least $15? Ask anyone who lives up here; you cannot remain completely isolated on this hilltop. Eventually you must travel down to Napa and beyond for supplies.

I read an article recently which indicated that homes far out in the country will someday be abandoned due to the high costs of energy. I suppose this makes little difference to Triad since they will build, make their profit and never look back at the future ghost town. "

HMcritic wrote on Oct 1, 2008 6:26 AM:

" Prof. You are having difficulty with the main premise of Vocal’s note: Crime. I will help you.

While urbanizing Angwin will, of course, bring crime, the sheriff’s substation is justified right now. Under the leadership of noted educator/real estate spinster Osborn, PUC’s on-campus crime as reported by the California Post-Secondary Education Commission has increased 260% from 10 reported incidents in 2002 to 26 in 2006. This has occurred in spite of the fact that enrollment under Osborn has declined by 25%. Last year the Campus Chronicle reported that a large number of PUC’s dorm residents consumed alcohol. Although it is obvious that this involves the crime of underage drinking in a large scale, this has never, once, as far as I know, been reported to the authorities. Many have noted the potential for DUI. In fact, the Campus Chronicle article recounted a story of intoxicated students driving. We do not have to wait for PUC’s subdivision to be concerned about crime.

Vocal, you need to adjust your perceptions to reality. PUC is not what it was. There is plenty of justification for more law enforcement right now. "

Econut wrote on Oct 1, 2008 8:24 AM:

" It seems to me that PUC's product is the best possible antidote against crime and gangs. Is Angwin's other product any better? "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 1, 2008 8:57 AM:

" HMcritic, I double-checked your statistics at the California Post-Secondary Education Commission website and found the following number of criminial offenses during the past year: 21 in 2001, 12 in 2002, 10 in 2003, 14 in 2004, 26 in 2005 and 26 in 2006. I just ran a simple linear regression on the data and there is NO STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT TREND (P = 0.28) in the data. Blaming the president of PUC for an increase in crime at PUC is unjustifiable.

As far as alcohol consumption goes, it has never been a secret that substantial numbers of students at PUC drink. PUC has a zero tolerance policy that we believe is best for society, but we do not control the behavior of students to the extent that some would like to think. We're pleased that secular society has a zero tolerance policy for underage drinking, because it is a serious matter. "

NoWayJose wrote on Oct 1, 2008 9:43 AM:

" Nut:
You may be right. But what is PUC’s product? PUC’s message used to be centered on the Second Coming, vegetarian food and missionary adventures. Now the message has been reduced to a slick but preposterous real estate promotion, which it seems to have internalized as part of its theology and mission. In the eyes of many in the community, like Andrea Rahn, quoted above, it has cheapened its message and thoroughly discredited itself as both a school and a religious institution. So no Mr. Nut, PUC’s present product, fronting for a Seattle developer, would not seem more worthy than other products from Angwin. "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 1, 2008 9:59 AM:

" NoWayJose, I think it's disrespectful to address Econut as Mr. Nut. And I think it's disrespectful to dismiss PUC's message as promoting real estate. PUC's product is a Christian education. Students come here to obtain a degree and a foot in the door to live a better life with a Christian perspective. To my knowledge nobody at PUC is a developer or real estate agent. PUC is simply selling land to a developer who is developing property. And by the way, PUC still has a strong spiritual emphasis--for those who seek it. I certainly find it and so do many students and many of my colleagues. We may not be as strict as we used to be but the message hasn't changed. "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 1, 2008 11:14 AM:

" I was wrong on the statistics. Because residence hall numbers are a subset of campus numbers, the two sets of data should not be added together. Thus, the number of criminal offenses is even less: 18 in 2001, 11 in 2002, 10 in 2003, 10 in 2004, 15 in 2005 and 16 in 2006. Definitely no linear trend (P = 0.95). "

HMcritic wrote on Oct 1, 2008 12:13 PM:

" Prof, thank you for your information. Most interpretations of Pearson’s product-moment coefficient suggest that in many applications a correlation of .28 is quite significant. Gambling casinos and stock arbitrage programs are based on much smaller P ratios than this. One way to improve your analysis would be to weight your data. You do not contest the fact that PUC’s enrollment has declined from approximately 1600 to 1300 students in the relevant time period. Assuming this decline is more or less linear, staying with the Commission numbers, rather than those you massaged, and adjusting the data for a crime per student (CPS) statistic will yield CPSs of .013 (2001), .007 (2002), .006 (2003), .009 (2004), .018, (2005) and .019 (2006). If you regress those statistics you will find the data yields a P ratio of .3898, which most analysts would find of medium significance. One of the benefits of regression is that it highlights bad data. I have considered 2001 data suspect for this reason. If you extract this suspect data and analyze the more recent years you will find the data regresses to a P ratio of .837, which I am sure you will agree is highly significant. This is a trend if there ever were one.

Of more concern is your cavalier riposte concerning the consumption of alcohol by underage collegians. I recall a time when PUC was a Seventh-day Adventist college and temperance was a given. Now it is just “we can’t control the students”? What about calling the cops?

When a ship is sinking the captain is blamed. The same goes with football coaches and presidents of colleges. If PUC's president is not receive the blame (and credit) for what has happened in his presidency who is? "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 1, 2008 12:51 PM:

" The P value is the probability that the null hypothesis, in this case that the slope of the regression line is equal to zero, is true. The null hypothesis is rejected when P < 0.05. The P value should not be confused with a correlation coefficient (r value).

At the moment I do not have access to PUC's enrollment figures, so I cannot comment on your analysis.

PUC disciplines all students who are caught drinking. A breathalyzer test is given only when a student is suspected of drinking--we do not compulsively or randomly test students for alcohol or drug abuse. Students who are caught meet with a committee which reviews the evidence and students are allowed to have a faculty or staff member as an advocate. Students are given a 3-5 day suspension for the first offense, a suspension of one or more quarters for the second offense, and expulsion after the third offense. We believe in redemption.

If you can name a secondary or tertiary educational institution in which not one student has ever abused alcohol or drugs, please let us know. "

kkjp wrote on Oct 1, 2008 1:59 PM:

" vocal: I am an "advocate" of the Angwin project because I ask a question trying to find information? A couple days ago you accused me of being an "advocate" of Napa Pipe, which wasn't even the topic of discussion. You're also quick to assign strange conspiratorial motives to other bloggers and make baseless accusations. How about sticking with stating your opinion on subjects and letting others do the same minus the attacks? Your crystal ball needs a new battery. "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 1, 2008 3:01 PM:

" PUC's recent enrollment decline has been exaggerated by some who are quick to point fingers.

A search of PUC's website revealed a document titled "WASC Proposal Appendices" with the following enrollment figures given as "Total Headcount Enrollment" on pp. 104-105: 1457 in 2002-2003, 1443 or 1453 (discrepancy in two tables) in 2003-2004, 1547 in 2004-2005, 1539 in 2005-2006, and 1396 in 2006-2007. For 2002-2003 I used the midpoint of 1448 for the statistical analysis. These figures, by the way, differ dramatically from those posted above by HMcritic.

Unfortunately there are only five years of data, but the correlation coefficient of -0.08 is close to zero and the slope of the regression line does not differ significantly from zero (P = 0.90).

Incidentally, the correlation coefficient for the crime statistics is 0.03, which is very close to zero. "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 1, 2008 3:06 PM:

" I should also point out that PUC students who are disciplined for drinking alcohol are also required to take an online course on alchol abuse, undergo counseling, and some have been required to perform community service. The state of California has similar requirements for underage drinkers. "

HMcritic wrote on Oct 1, 2008 6:19 PM:

" Prof. You have not indicated what you are correlating your crime statistics to get what you are calling a correlation coefficient of 0.03, but if you use weighted data and start with 2002 and end with 2006, the last year that there seem to be crime statistics, you will note the increase of 260% mentioned above (a significant number, no?) and you can regress this to a line with a R2 of .837 suggesting the presence of a trend rather than suggesting the data is random. You have announced that there is no trend and you have told us that something correlates to almost zero but these conclusions seem to not be well taken. The enrollment at PUC has recently become difficult to determine. It seems that as there are fewer students they are harder to count and, to be fair, these numbers change slightly from day to day. But there are numerous references in the 2001-2002 time period to an average enrollment of 1600 students and it is known that last year FTEs went below 1300. If you do not try to weight data at all, and pretend there was no change, you will come to nearly the same result in terms of trend analysis.

I do not think we disagree. Reader noted that PUC wants to build a sheriff’s substation. I am simply suggesting we should not delay in doing so as we could employ one right now. That’s all. So have a good night. "

vocal-de-local wrote on Oct 1, 2008 11:58 PM:

" kkjp, you didn't answer my question. Do you work for Triad? "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 2, 2008 8:56 AM:

" First I'll analyze the raw number of criminal offenses:

18 in year 1 (2001)
11 in year 2 (2002)
10 in year 3 (2003)
10 in year 4 (2004)
15 in year 5 (2005)
16 in year 6 (2006)

The Pearson correlation coefficient (r) is 0.03 with a P of 0.95, which means that the probability that there is no association between the year and number of crimes is 95%.

When the dependent variable (crimes) is regressed on the independent variable (year), R squared = 0.001, F = 0.00 and P = 0.95, which means that the probability that the slope of the regression line is equal to zero--in other words, that there is no trend in the data--is 95%.

Based on this analysis, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR AN INCREASE IN CRIME! "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 2, 2008 9:04 AM:

" Now I'll adjust the crime statistics to a per capita basis. The years don't correspond precisely and I lack data for 2001-2002, but I'll be generous to HMcritic and go with 1600. So, here are the number of crimes divided by the number of students for each year:

18 / 1600 = 0.0113 for year 1
11 / 1457 = 0.0075 for year 2
10 / 1448 = 0.0069 for year 3
10 / 1547 = 0.0065 for year 4
15 / 1539 = 0.0097 for year 5
16 / 1396 = 0.0115 for year 6

The Pearson correlation coefficient is 0.17 with a probability of no association between year and the crime rate being 74%.

When the dependent variable (crime rate) is regressed on the independent variable (year), R squared = 0.03, F = 0.12, and P = 0.74, which means that the probability that the slope of the regression line--in other words, the probability that there is no trend in the data--is 74%.

Again, based on this analysis, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THE PER CAPITA CRIME RATE IS INCREASING AT PUC! "

Econut wrote on Oct 3, 2008 8:22 AM:

" Mr. NoWayJose, your previous comments reveal an expertise in legal matters, so I suspect you are a lawyer. If so (or if not), there is no way Jose that you are good enough to ever convince a jury that PUC's primary product is peddling real estate.

By the way, nuts are good for your health. "

NoWayJose wrote on Oct 5, 2008 1:56 PM:

" Nut: Wrong about 2 out of 3 and, from what I hear peanuts can kill. But if a business nets a million $ or so from operations and $40, $50 $85 or $100s of mils. (depending on whose WAG one believes) selling its real estate assets, what business is it in? Could that be the reason so many communications originating from PUC deal with selling its real estate rather than its education? If it hired experts to market its programs (not that it doesn’t but it does not seem to) rather than its real estate and placing its graduates could it get a greater return than that it is getting angering everyone with the dead Eco-village horse? Maybe you are wrong about the jury too. "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 6, 2008 8:20 AM:

" Angering everyone? Once again, opinion rather than fact. "

HMcritic wrote on Oct 7, 2008 10:58 PM:

" Prof: You insist on using data that that differs from that reported to the California Department of Education and using anomalous data for the purpose of trying to find something that proves something that you have not clearly articulated other than that you are right and everyone you disagree with is wrong. Good. But most can eyeball your data and note that, even using your data, this year is worse than last, and last year was worse than the year before. Since you make illustrate my position so well I supposed there was nothing to add. Unfortunately, today’s DUI reports tell us of 3 young Angwinites, some or all who are or recently have been students of your school, making their mothers proud. PUC is not what it was. As someone who drives his family over these roads, this scares the Dickens out of me and it should you also. Twisted statistics and pompous glosses over booze rehab programs do not deal with reality. "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 8, 2008 8:08 AM:

" Here are the statistics directly from the website. Notice that there are two sections: (1) Criminal Offenses and (2) On Campus - Residence Halls. Notice that after the second set of statistics it says "Numbers included in totals above." You can't add the two sets of data together to get 26 for 2006.

Criminal Offenses
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
On Campus - Totals
Murder / Non-Negligent Manslaughter 0 0 0 0 0 0
Negligent Manslaughter 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aggravated Assault 0 1 0 1 1 0
Sex Offenses - Forcible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sex Offenses - Non-forcible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Arson 0 0 0 0 1 0
Robbery 0 0 0 0 0 0
Burglary 16 8 9 8 13 16
Motor Vehicle Theft 2 2 1 1 0 0

On Campus - Residence Halls (Numbers included in totals above.)
Murder / Non-Negligent Manslaughter 0 0 0 0 0 0
Negligent Manslaughter 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aggravated Assault 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sex Offenses - Forcible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sex Offenses - Non-forcible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Arson 0 0 0 0 0 0
Robbery 0 0 0 0 0 0
Burglary 3 1 0 4 11 10
Motor Vehicle Theft 0 0 0 0 0 0 "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 8, 2008 8:11 AM:

" HMcritic, if you were the president of PUC, what would you do with students? Would you require mandatory testing of all students for alcohol and drugs? Would you expel everyone who is caught? Do you believe nobody at PUC ever drank alcohol during the 1950s or 1960s? "

HMcritic wrote on Oct 8, 2008 10:43 AM:

" “Would you expel everyone who is caught (drinking or drugging)?” They don’t? Are things that bad? "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 8, 2008 11:33 AM:

" Some think we're too liberal; others think we're too conservative. It's impossible to please everybody. If I caught my teenaged child abusing alcohol or drugs, I would not kick him or her out of my home after the first offense. I believe in redemption--and so does PUC. Some students actually learn from their mistakes. Others do not, and are expelled when they are caught repeatedly. If you want your child to attend a college that would automatically expel your child if caught drinking alcohol, good luck finding one. "

HMcritic wrote on Oct 8, 2008 3:59 PM:

" Some people might call it just plain wrong. Possession of alcoholic beverages by a minor, furnishing alcoholic beverages to a minor and driving under the influence of alcohol or controlled substances are crimes. PUC might refer to other institution’s policies. Ex.: “Stanford is responsible for the enforcement of state and local laws. Therefore, anyone who violates the law may be arrested and prosecuted.” It seems this is not the case at your college since during the 6 years of crime statistics examined not one violation was reported, yet, as you state “it has never been a secret that substantial numbers of students at PUC drink.” Violation of these laws (and similar “host” laws) is most concerning when it affects the safety of the surrounding community as in PUC’s frightening DUI problem. There might be more appropriate ways to deal with this than trotting out condescending platitudes about redemption. PUC is not what it was on a number of levels, and the community needs to adjust its perceptions. "

PUC Prof wrote on Oct 9, 2008 7:58 AM:

" Actually the police have been called in to deal with several crimes on campus during the past several years, including theft and drunk driving, plus a few other crimes. I cannot delve into the details. But if you want to believe PUC is a wicked and evil place, nothing I write will change your mind. I give up. "

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