Here’s my ‘take’ on the debt ceiling crisis (not that anybody asked):
The House has attempted to ‘set the anchor’ on the issue via their bill. Negotiation mavens say that setting the anchor is a powerful move, but for it to work it can’t be too extreme, and there must be bargaining space available.
Unfortunately, the GOP proposal is too extreme, and to even report-out the bill they had to include every damp reverie of every member of their caucus. No room to bargain, lest they lose their majority and McCarthy his speakership. Both are fatal flaws.
Thus the only way out – and it’s a deadline play - seems to be to get five moderate GOP reps (if these exist) to throw-in with all the Dems to vote-out a clean extension (this option also needs a few like-minded Senators).
Of course, this can only happen if those sacrificial five truly understand the utter calamity of default, and are willing to put country above party (and political future, but c’mon, there are other futures available).
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If this works, then we can move on to a legitimate debate on new spending – if the GOP ever presents an actual budget proposal. The defections then on-record, though, will dramatically weaken the House’s influence.
I think they’ve overplayed a very marginal hand.